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Latest poll in Brazil has Lula leading Bolsonaro with less than 2 weeks before election

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SAO PAULO, BRAZIL - Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Workers Party) during the debate with candidates for the presidency of Brazil, at Band TV studios in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Sunday, October 16, 2022. (Paulo Lopes - Anadolu Agency)
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Oct 20, 2022 - 01:36 AM

BUENOS AIRES (AA) – A poll published Wednesday suggests front-runner for the Brazilian presidency, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is ahead by five percentage points.

Eleven days before the second-round vote on Oct. 30, the distance between Lula and far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has been reduced from eight to five points, according to a Genial/Quaest poll.

The poll suggested that Lula has secured 47% of the vote while Bolsonaro has managed 42%.

The Director of Quaest Felipe Nunes explained on Twitter that once all the data is calculated “in relation to the group of voters most likely to appear on polling day (likely voter model), Lula appears with 52.8% of valid votes against 47.2% for Bolsonaro.”

A total of 2,000 people, aged 16 and older, were interviewed Oct. 16 – 18 for the survey which said it has a 2% margin of error and 95% reliance levels.

In the first-round vote, many polls had predicted a clear first-round win for Lula who served as president from 2003 until 2010.

But Lula garnered 48% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 43%.

Because neither candidate secured more than 50% of the vote, a second round automatically kicked in, underscoring how tight the race remained as Bolsonaro outperformed at the ballot box.

The candidates have since campaigned hard, exchanging barbs in their first head-to-head debate Sunday.

Lula labeled Bolsonaro a “little dictator,” denouncing him for spreading “fake news.” And Bolsonaro condemned corruption during Lula’s tenure as president.

Lula met Brazil’s powerful evangelical sector Wednesday, a growing political force with many backing Bolsonaro — in a bid to secure their vote, insisting he is against abortion and denouncing Bolsonaro’s “sad scandal of the use of faith” on the campaign trail.

​​​​​​​Bolsonaro has pushed the “good” versus “evil” narrative about his opposition while defending conservative Christian and family values and decrying drugs, abortion and “gender ideology” — ideals that strongly resonate with the country’s evangelical sector that make up 30% of the country.

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